Stop Searching For Certainty
The desire for certainty shouldn’t come at the expense of hope.
In two weeks, the work I put forth over the past four months will be brought to light. I am unsure if I have done enough, too much, or the right amount. I am flying blind. I am venturing into unknown territory. In two weeks, I will compete in a Hyrox.
Hyrox is a fitness competition that combines running and functional workout stations. It alternates between a kilometer of running and a functional workout, i.e. rowing, skiing, burpees, for eight kilometers and eight workout stations. This is my first Hyrox. I have done plenty of running, lifting, CrossFit, HIIT workouts, etc., but to combine it all in a max effort test will be a new adventure.
The competition is smothered in uncertainty. I have an idea of what to expect but there lies a difference between thinking and doing. I can’t say with certainty how I will do, where I might slip up, or what my sticking point may be, but I have hope it will go well. I am optimistic the 400+ miles I ran during training will have only helped me, the weight I lifted, the workouts where sweat turns my shorts to a darker shade than they begin, and the 5:15 AM alarms will be worth it. I am optimistic about the result. I have hope but not certainty.
Humans kill for certainty. Whole industries hinge on it. Structured settlements provide us certainty but rob us of hope. In court for a personal injury case, a lawyer could ensure a client they have a 90% chance of winning their $100,000 settlement. But a risk-adjustment company could offer to buy the case for $80,000, a settlement $10,000 lower than the expected value of waiting, and the client has to resist an innate desire to settle. People happily pay a premium to avoid unpredictability. Insurance is about transferring the risk from the common person to the big corporation. Certainty comes at a steep price.
People stay in traditional jobs they hate for the certainty it provides. We passively allocate our money into the S&P 500 because it resembles the closest thing to certainty – it has never had a negative return over 20 years. We pay for trip insurance to ensure we don’t lose money, but in reality, we blow the risk out of proportion. Businesses upcharge for two-day shipping knowing people will pay a premium to guarantee their gift arrives on time. We create a 12-step plan to build a gym routine because it gives the illusion that if we can follow these 12 steps, our plan is foolproof. Uncertainty is uncomfortable, but certainty is foolish.
In Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman discusses our aversion to risk and need for certainty,
“80% chance to win $100 and 20% chance to win $10 is $82 (0.8 x 100 + 0.2 x 10).
Now ask yourself this question: Which would you prefer to receive as a gift, this gamble or $80 for sure? Almost everyone prefers the sure thing. If people valued uncertain prospects by their expected value, they would prefer the gamble, because $82 is more than $80… If offered a choice between a game and an amount equal to its expected value they will pick the sure thing. In fact a risk-averse decision maker will choose a sure thing that is less than the expected value, in effect paying a premium to avoid the uncertainty.”
We shouldn’t always pay the premium. Sometimes, we forget the desire for certainty shouldn’t come at the expense of hope. We lack the optimism that we have the agency to figure out our trip plans when a flight gets canceled or delayed. We stay in a job we hate because the idea of figuring it out as we go along is repulsive. It lacks certainty. Our trust and hope for our future has dissolved. But as Miles Davis said,
“If you hit a wrong note, it’s the next note you play that determines if it’s good or bad.”
If we fail, so be it! Who cares? It isn’t about failing, it is about the note we play after failing. Have hope you can come out better! When our flight gets canceled, clouding our trip, it is about how we get our trip back on schedule. When the stock market begins to dip, it is not about the dip, but our ability to hold through a downturn.
Of course, it is natural to feel fear and worry about the unknown. Times have never been certain, and each year, it only feels that they become filled with more despair. You are not alone. Not only do I face a Hyrox, but I will be moving and have a new job within the next five months. Life is unknown. The future is unknown.
This is what hope is for. Hope gives life to the heart and allows our imagination to run wild. It files through the possibilities and opportunities and casts a radiating light on what could be and what we could become. Hope is essential. It inspires agency. It allows us to flourish. Hope is the ultimate performance enhancer. Hope allows us to believe that not only can we do this, but we can do this well.
It is achieved through the rejection of certainty. Certainty is the relentless search for answers that simply aren’t there. A certain world is morbid. It is rigid. It tries to convince us there is no room for imagination, growth, or innovation. Certainty is rooted in despair and ignores the belief that we can make the world better, we can change, we can grow, and we can become the person we want to be. Everything is already certain, after all.
Cynicism sets its guise as certainty. Cynicism is too easy. The dark, hopeless narrative that the stock market will crash is more infectious and common. Accepting the narrative that younger generations are failing at an unprecedented rate is easier than trying to crack open societal issues. Giving up is easier than finding a solution. Cynicism and a desire for certainty too often become our default emotions. Certainty and cynicism are corrosive forces. They convince us of a dreadful existence. They tell us things can’t improve.
Hope rises to the occasion and is the necessary antidote. It understands that life includes a wrong note or two, bad performances, and failure. Maintaining hope the stock market will not crumble, ignoring the “pundits”, and investing in assets and equities despite headlines trying to convince us otherwise proves to be more fruitful. Mentoring the youth and participating in afterschool programs is the needed competitor that can defeat the pessimism around younger generations. Hope is the catalyst that keeps us moving in an uncertain world.
I write this, and I am only getting closer to Hyrox, a new living situation, and a new job. My life is bursting at the seams with uncertainty. But my life has helped me to write this piece. I look forward to it. The anticipation, the unknown, and most of all, the hope. All I can do is hope and beam with optimism. It has helped get me this far. Anytime I was unsure about my next job, my next move, or how I might perform athletically, I chose to be an optimist. Hope was the affirmation that helped me get through. In two weeks as I cross that Hyrox finish line, I wish to see the life of hope in action.
-Scantron
Appreciate you for reading. Always love to hear from everyone.