Why We Might Fail in the New Year
Small wins and small goals are the way
The idea of an overnight success might be the biggest fallacy out there. It is an oxymoron but that doesn’t stop anyone from loving the idea of it.
There is a clip that seemingly goes viral every two weeks because packaged into it is a real-life version of an “overnight success”. It is not the same account posting it either or a continuation of a story, it is the same clip that is posted over and over and over again.
In the clip, Pharrell Williams visits Maggie Rogers’ music production class at New York University to critique student work. She plays a demo of “Alaska” for Pharrell and at the end of the demo, Pharrell says, “WOW, WOW, I have zero, zero, zero notes for that and I will tell you why, it is because you are doing your own thing. It’s singular.”
Pharrell Williams is widely considered one of the most influential and successful music producers of the 21st century. This isn’t just high praise from anyone, it is from Pharrell Williams. Pharrell Williams has discovered a diamond in the rough.
Maggie’s life will never be the same. Maggie blows up overnight, but for Maggie to finally have music change her life, is it all because of this one moment? To say it is would discredit all the work that had come before. They say it takes ten years to become an overnight success. A contradictory statement? Yes, but a truthful one at that.
I think part of the reason why the clip continues to resurface despite happening back in 2016 is people fall in love with the idea of “overnight successes”. They see Maggie and packaged into a video is her big break. It was the beginning of her success. It is romanticized because people relish the idea of “If I could just get one chance, I could change my life forever.” I can be like Maggie. It is seeing someone get rich quickly right before our eyes. Except that getting rich quickly is a myth. What people fail to acknowledge is everything that came before. A sturdy base had to be laid before anyone could ever “get rich quick”. The Cinderella slipper is a byproduct of hard work, luck, risks, blood, tears, and sweat equity.
“Part of success is having a good story, and as a journalist, I totally understand, but it meant my many, many years of focus and hard work got kind of prepackaged into a Cinderella story.”
- Maggie Rogers talking about the moment with Pharrell
It was a bunch of small wins along the way that finally culminated in a big win. A continuous grind that seemed to be slowly inching along until Pharrell Williams came to her class. For Pharrell Williams to ever like her music, Maggie had to tweak and improve, regather and advance to ever get that opportunity or any that came before. Not to mention, the work she had to do to even get into New York University. It is not at every university that Pharrell Williams comes to your class. There are certainly levels to it. There were plenty of unsexy, small wins along the way but those are what gave Maggie the chance to shine when it mattered.
Anyone who was ever an “overnight success” that had any staying power was successful because of their will to prepare. The big win is what is idolized but peel back its layers and it’s composed of a bunch of small wins. The world is built on small wins.
Look at Las Vegas, a city built on tourism and built on people losing money. Vegas doesn’t win by having a few people lose hundreds of millions of dollars. Vegas wins because, over time, people slowly lose more and more in small amounts. Casinos have a long-run statistical advantage for every game. They may occasionally pay out large sums of money but since people are playing enough and the payouts are manageable, they win by taking on the risk of those payouts. They are nearly guaranteed profit in the long term through people losing small amounts over time. The small wins compound and mitigate the risk of the large payouts and that is how you have the monstrosity that Vegas is. Small wins over time compounding.
A bunch of small goals and wins are much more manageable than a big, unachievable goal. People seek these big goals and illusions because it is what can change their lives in an instant. The allure of big payouts is much greater than the allure of small payouts at the same price but over a longer, sometimes more excruciating, period. There is nothing fun about dollar cost averaging the S&P 500 into your 401k each month but there is something to the thrill of buying a $2 lottery ticket. $2 is all it could take to change your life. The risk is little but the reward is infinite.
The lottery ticket business is a $191.1 billion business and 70% of lottery winners go bankrupt in five years. People are searching for the big win, the win to change their life but the boom is oftentimes just as big as the bust.
A man just won a $2.4 billion Powerball jackpot in November of 2022. He walked away with $628.5 million after taking it in cash and the taxes were deducted. He has since bought houses worth $25.5 million, $4 million, and $47 million. Not to mention, he drives some pretty nice cars as well. The houses are nice and sure, the money is there to afford them but there is insurance, taxes, maintenance, upkeep, etc. that must be paid on them, which will only continue to increase the costs of these investments. The chance of a bust and bankruptcy is high because so much is dependent on the boom of winning the lottery.
He didn’t previously have this lifestyle nor did he live this lavishly. Waking up one day and being $628 million richer is hard to comprehend. It is the product of sheer luck and a big win but it is not something we can or should wait to happen to us. Saying your career goal was to win the lottery and retire would be laughed at but it is one of the only true examples of a true, literal overnight success. No work is required. Just a short drive to the local convenience store to change your life. However, the probability of you changing your life thanks to the lottery is next to none, the odds are about 1 in 300 million. To ever realistically become an “overnight success” takes time and small wins.
Think of Vegas and all the money their casinos make and why Pharrell Williams fell in love with Maggie Rogers’ music, all the small wins along the way. We are not able to retire because we won the lottery, we can retire because of the small amounts of money we load into our 401k each month. Fast forward 40 years and those small amounts have now compounded into a large amount that we can retire on. I think the world is best faced by taking small steps each time to move towards a bigger goal.
This is why I think New Year's Resolutions need a better definition and it's not because I want to be the tough, big-chested guy either, I have much to improve on in my life too. Rather, they are always incredibly audacious and bold.
“I want to lose 50 pounds.”
“I want to make $25,000 trading stocks.”
“I want “X” revenue from my business this year.”
Staring these goals in the face is daunting and they almost seem insurmountable because they are so big. I find it better to narrow these goals and plans down.
“I want to show up to the gym 3x a week.”
It is much more manageable and realistic that way. Not to mention, sometimes the hardest thing about losing 50 pounds or going to the gym 3x a week is just walking through that front door. It is a lot easier to walk through the front door and already be 33% of your way to your weekly goal than walking through the front door and having yet to make any progress towards losing 50 pounds.
The small wins are easier to build on and they easily gain momentum. Small wins allow you to build a sturdy base from which to grow and the chances of your goals and plans not being realized move farther away from zero. This is how anyone has ever amassed large amounts of money, changed their lifestyle, or completely turnaround their health, small wins compounding.
I think all of us, myself included, naturally gravitate towards one day our lives drastically changing for the better, most notably with our finances, but for that to ever have a chance to happen, requires small wins. Maybe in 2024 and beyond it's not so much about what crazy things can I accomplish and what can I do to drastically change my life. Maybe it’s about what small things I can do to eventually accomplish crazy things and eventually better my life. A life-changing journey can start with a whimper. You don’t need a “big break” or a “big win” to succeed. It's a small win. Then another. And another. It can sometimes be as simple as walking through the front door of a gym or your monthly contribution to your 401k. Start small and build, it is much better that way. That's one way to make 2024 special.
Appreciate you reading.
-Scantron